Gold Remain Range-Bound Amid Inflation and Policy UncertaintyOn Monday morning in Asia, gold prices fell under pressure, dropping to a low of around $4672 before rebounding. Four consecutive positive days have now been recorded, suggesting a potential bottoming out and rebound. Recently, despite continued tensions in the Middle East, gold has failed to find significant support and has instead fallen under the influence of macroeconomic factors, indicating that the current market pricing logic has shifted from simple safe-haven demand to a rebalancing of interest rates and inflation expectations.
From a news perspective, the US has suspended related diplomatic visits, while Iran has clearly stated that it will not negotiate under pressure or blockade, indicating that the situation is unlikely to ease in the short term. Meanwhile, Israel has intensified its military operations in Lebanon, further escalating regional tensions. These events have driven volatility in the energy market, with crude oil prices remaining high, reinforcing market concerns about a rebound in inflation.
Logically, rising oil prices often push up overall inflation levels through energy cost transmission, and rising inflation expectations directly affect the path of monetary policy. The market widely expects the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged at this week's policy meeting. This expectation of persistently high interest rates significantly weakens gold's appeal as a non-interest-bearing asset. In a high-interest-rate environment, funds tend to flow into assets with yield-generating properties, thus putting downward pressure on gold.
Meanwhile, although gold possesses safe-haven attributes, at this stage, the market's focus is significantly higher on the duration of high interest rates than on geopolitical risks themselves. This means that even with heightened tensions, gold's upside potential remains limited. Investors are more focused on the statements made by Fed officials at the post-meeting press conference, especially how they assess the impact of rising energy prices on the inflation path and whether they will adjust future policy expectations.
Market sentiment is currently somewhat divided. On the one hand, geopolitical risks provide a floor for gold; on the other hand, rising interest rate expectations create upward pressure, keeping gold prices in a generally weak and volatile pattern. Funds are repeatedly switching between these two logics, leading to increased price volatility but an unclear trend.
From a technical perspective, on the daily chart, gold prices have entered a correction phase after breaking below the short-term upward trend line, currently trading within a consolidation range. Key support lies around $4650-60; a break below this level could lead to a further test of the $4600 mark. Resistance is concentrated in the $4720-$4750 area. Momentum-wise, bearish forces are gradually strengthening, limiting the potential for short-term rebounds. The 4-hour chart shows a downward-trending structure with short-term moving averages diverging downwards, indicating a predominantly bearish sentiment. However, a sudden risk event could trigger a rapid short-term rebound.
In summary, the core contradiction in the current gold market lies in the interplay between "safe-haven demand" and the "high-interest-rate environment." While the Middle East situation provides some support for gold, rising inflation expectations and persistently high interest rates significantly weaken its appeal, putting overall pressure on gold prices. In the short term, the Federal Reserve's policy signals will be the dominant factor. A hawkish stance could lead to further weakness in gold; conversely, a more moderate stance on inflation risks could present a short-term rebound opportunity. The medium-term trend still needs to focus on the inflation path and the inflection point of interest rates.
