Downtrend Continuation Setup: Pullback Before Bearish ExpansionDowntrend Continuation Setup: Pullback Before Next Bearish Expansion
📝 Description:
The chart shows a clear strong bearish market structure, characterized by continuous lower highs and lower lows, confirming seller dominance. Price has already completed a significant downside move after a break of structure, reinforcing the downtrend.
Currently, price has reacted from a major demand zone, leading to a short-term bullish pullback. This movement looks corrective rather than a full reversal, suggesting the market may be retracing to grab liquidity before continuing the bearish trend.
Above current price, two key liquidity/target areas are marked:
First target around 98.79
Final target around 99.62
These levels act as potential zones where price may seek liquidity before any rejection. However, unless a strong bullish structure shift occurs, the overall bias remains bearish continuation after pullback
U.S. Dollar Index
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In-depth trading ideas
DXY – Market Bullish AnalysisDXY – Market Structure Analysis
Following a prolonged consolidation phase, the Dollar Index (DXY) established a strong base near the support region, indicating accumulation. Price recently showed a bullish reaction from this demand zone, suggesting a potential shift in short-term sentiment as buyers step back into the market.
Currently, price is attempting to build momentum after bouncing from support and is moving toward higher levels within the range. Holding above the current structure would signal strengthening bullish intent and open the path for a continuation toward key resistance zones.
📊 Key Trading Scenarios
✅ Bullish Scenario 🚀
* Price sustains above the 97.00 – 96.50 support region
* Continued higher low formation confirms recovery structure
🎯 Target 1: 101.00
🎯 Target 2: 103.50
❌ Bearish Scenario ⚠️
* A breakdown below 95.50 may invalidate the bullish outlook
🎯 Downside Target 1: 95.00
🎯 Downside Target 2: 94.00
📍 Critical Levels to Monitor
🔴 Immediate Resistance: 101.00
🔴 Major Resistance: 103.50 (Resistance Area)
🟢 Key Support Zone: 97.00 – 95.50
⚠️ Trading Insight
Price is currently reacting from a well-defined support zone and showing early signs of bullish recovery. Sustaining above this region would support further upside toward resistance, while rejection or breakdown could lead to renewed downside pressure.
Note:
This analysis is based on current market structure and price action. Market conditions may evolve—always use proper risk management.
DXY Eyes 98.86 BreakoutDXY remains supported in the short term — target 98.67 , pullback to 98.57 , then a breakout above 98.86
At the moment, the U.S. dollar is still supported by a clear macro backdrop: geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have not been fully resolved, risks around the Strait of Hormuz remain in place, and the market continues to reduce expectations for near-term Fed rate cuts. Reuters reported that the Dollar Index climbed to around 98.58 as investors returned to the USD as a defensive asset, while the market priced a relatively low probability of Fed easing this year.
From a macro data perspective, the dollar is also being supported by signs that the U.S. economy remains resilient. Reuters noted that U.S. retail sales came in stronger than expected, reinforcing the view that the economy is still firm enough for the Fed to maintain a cautious stance for longer. That is an important catalyst keeping short-term demand for the dollar intact.
From a technical point of view, the chart still shows a valid bullish structure after price formed a higher high and then entered a short corrective phase to absorb supply. My preferred scenario is for price to continue pushing higher toward 98.67, then pull back technically to 98.57 to build a fresh support base. If buying momentum remains in control and the 98.57 zone holds, DXY could resume higher and break above the 98.86 area in the next leg up.
In short, this is a setup where macro factors are supporting the USD, while the chart is confirming a bullish continuation scenario after a pullback. As long as 98.57 is not clearly broken to the downside, the short-term bias remains bullish, with upside potential extending above 98.86.
Key levels to watch
Near-term resistance: 98.67
Pullback support: 98.57
Breakout confirmation: 98.86
Short-term invalidation: a strong break below 98.57 Chart reference
21.04.26 Daily ForecastPairs on Watch -
FX:EURJPY : Overall the Yen pairs are still looking bullish in line with the JP225, and although the sequence may not look the cleanest it still has context for the longs. I will be waiting to see if the base holds for the longs and we get an insurance entry on the lower timeframes, if we do I will manage into the high incase price develops a larger structure.
FX:EURCAD : Although price looks far down in the run from the highs, we can see breaking down the price action that everything above has now completed which opens the door for us to continue getting short if a structure forms. I am looking for a pullback into the ray line area for a 15M risk entry, however also aware price could develop a structure sooner and drop out
Dollar Index- 3M CLS Range Model 2 + COTHi Friends, Model 1 has already played out and price has made a pullback to the Model 2 zone. Im looking for long from this this key level. As always SL should be above the protected swing. Confirmation switch on LTF is advantage.
⏳ Stay patient Model2 dynamics is usually slower.
🎯 Target: Full CLS range.
🎥 CLS Model 2 Video Explanation 📚 Bullish CLS Strategy Structure 🔮 COT Order Flow Explanation
Focus on Columns Longs, Shorts, Net. Longs since March they grew from 15K to 23K. Last week dropped to 18K but remember. Data are reported on Tuesday and published on Friday. So we dont see what has happened in that Fridays manipulation candle. In other words we cans see what they want us to see. I can only guess that it’s been buying manipulation candle. Yeah this looks like just mine sci-fi from my head. So lets look at the shorts During the march they dropped it from 22K to the 13K and it was in that leg down. Lets put it in to perspective. Price is going down. Longs slightly growing and shorts being closed = Now look at the net positions we flipped from -4.9K to 5.1K positive. You see whats going on. They are building long position and I think it’s ready with this final dip in the discount. ⚠️ Risk Control is Key to Long Term Success
📍 Always place a proper stop loss
📍 Manage your risk per trade
📍 Stay disciplined & avoid emotional trading
📍Take the Trade only if you understand logic behind it
📍 Protect Capital First
🚀Boost | 🔁 Share | 💬 Comment | ✅Follow for more CLS setups
Adapt useful, Reject useless and add what is specifically yours.
David Perk
20.04.26 Daily ForecastPairs on Watch -
FX:AUDJPY : Very simple outlook on this pair as for me this is the most straight forward until we see a lot of the other pairs develop after the gaps / gap fills. I am waiting to see if we get a break above the current structure and almost a structural flip to the upside which would align with the bullish JP225 + the higher timeframe on this pair as a whole. An impulsive break followed by a 15M continuation above would be ideal, either a risk entry or reduce risk entry works here.
DXY in a Short-Term Bullish RallyDXY in a Short-Term Bullish Rally
DXY started reacting after a few days in a clear downtrend.
Overall, USD was weak but not for obvious reasons as the economic calendar was empty.
It all ties to the war but again the moves had no real reason in my opinion.
DXY started to rise above a bullish reversal pattern that is happening today, increasing the chances of a short-term bullish rally.
We will deal with Trump's comments before the real move happens.
I am waiting for a move to 98.50 and 98.80 for now.
You can find more details on the chart.
Thank you and good luck! 🍀
⚠️PS: Do your own analysis and use your own strategy to join the trade.
❤️ If this analysis helps your trading day, please support it with a like or comment ❤️
DXY D1 - Buy SignalDXY D1
Trying to correlate the DXY with GJ… We mentioned US stocks have being lying, which again aligns with what we are seeing on the DXY, as the DXY falls, stock market gains. As FX gains, stock market falls…
Let’s see if we can get off the ground here on DXY, bouncing from this 98.000 price we have indicated, climbing to see if this range will fill.
If we can get some bullish traction here on the dollar, this may compliment a YEN correction (bullish), and see GBPJPY short to fill some of its range.
The DXY chart will help you in XAUUSD trading.Current price: around 98.23
Instrument: DXY (US Dollar Index)
Timeframe: H4 (4-hour candles)
Technical levels marked:
Resistance zone: near 99.00 – 99.10 (red horizontal lines)
Mid resistance/support: around 98.50
Tested support: around 98.00
Weak low: around 97.50
Strong low: around 97.00
Indicators / Signals:
Colored trend lines and moving averages are visible.
Labels such as:
HH = Higher High
LH = Lower High
LL = Lower Low
These indicate market structure analysis.
Current Market View:
Price is below the resistance zone (99.00)
It recently bounced from lower support areas
Short-term recovery is visible, but resistance overhead remains strong
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) — Bearish Pullback Toward 98.187 SupportThis 1-hour chart of the U.S. Dollar Index shows price previously trending upward within a rising channel, supported by the Ichimoku Cloud. After reaching the upper boundary, a sharp rejection (long wick spike) signals exhaustion. Price has since broken below short-term structure and is slipping toward the cloud support.
Momentum appears to be weakening, with lower highs forming and price edging closer to the lower channel boundary and cloud base.
**Target:**
* Downside target: **98.178** (marked horizontal support and projected move from the breakdown)
If price fails to hold above the cloud and channel support, continuation toward this level becomes likely. A reclaim of the cloud, however, would invalidate the bearish setup.
DXY 25th APR - 25th MAYThe resistance zone 100-102 is legitimate multi decade tested level, structurally still valid.Bearish flag is reasonable given the sharp drop from 110 followed by consolidation.Bearish Flag Isn't Confirmed Yet Price is still inside the flag at 98.2. A bearish flag only triggers on a clean breakdown below the flag's lower boundary.
Invalidation level If DXY reclaims 101.5+ entire anaylsis collaps.
The US Dollar Missed the Boat!The US dollar had every reason to appreciate in the FX market amid geopolitical events in the Middle East. But after an initial rise up to March 20, it quickly resumed its downward path and showed no technical sign of a bullish reversal. Why is it so weak even in the current environment of systemic geopolitical risk, and while the market does not expect any Fed rate cuts for a long time?
The US dollar had all the cards in hand to strengthen in recent weeks. In a context of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and a resurgence of inflation in the United States, the greenback should have fully played its safe-haven role. Especially since the market now expects no rate cuts from the Federal Reserve before the end of 2027, a factor traditionally supportive of the currency. And yet, after an initial rise up to March 20, the dollar quickly erased its gains, returning close to its starting point. This lack of bullish reaction, despite an apparently supportive environment, is a strong signal: something deeper is weighing on the US currency.
In reality, several macroeconomic factors are offsetting this theoretical support. The market now anticipates a slowdown in the US economy, with a possible rise in unemployment and a fading growth cycle. Moreover, underlying disinflation is continuing, reducing pressure on the Fed to maintain a restrictive policy. Even if headline inflation rises due to oil, this is so-called “low-quality” inflation, driven by supply, and does not sustainably support the currency. In this context, real rate expectations are declining, mechanically weakening the dollar in the foreign exchange market.
The chart below outlines the main fundamental factors weighing on the dollar and neutralizing its safe-haven role in the face of geopolitical risk.
This is compounded by a major shift in monetary policy. The market believes that the peak in interest rates has now been reached, bringing an end to the main structural driver of the dollar’s rise in recent years. The prospect of a more accommodative Fed, embodied by the arrival of Kevin Warsh at the head of the Fed, reinforces this dynamic. At the same time, US public finances are raising increasing concerns. The surge in debt and the scale of the budget deficit raise long-term sustainability issues, weighing on the dollar’s credibility. This situation implies a growing need for external financing, making the United States dependent on foreign capital.
Finally, international flows and structural dynamics play a key role in this persistent weakness. There is a rotation of capital toward other regions, particularly Europe and emerging markets, considered more attractive in terms of valuation. Central banks are also diversifying their reserves, gradually reducing their dependence on the dollar. This phenomenon is part of a broader trend of de-dollarization, notably driven by China and the BRICS countries. In this context, even geopolitical risk is no longer enough to sustainably support the greenback.
From a technical analysis perspective, despite bullish momentum divergences on the weekly timeframe, the US dollar has not confirmed a bullish reversal signal similar to spring 2018 and autumn 2021. The inability of the US dollar (DXY) to break above the major resistance at 101/102 keeps it in a bearish technical configuration in place since the end of 2022. The continuation of the trend this year will depend on the decisions made by the Federal Reserve in the coming weeks.
The chart below shows weekly candlesticks of the US dollar against a basket of major currencies (the DXY). The major resistance at 101/102 has not been broken.
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DXY - Short Setup Forming on the Daily Here's what I'm watching on the Dollar Index right now 👇
A couple weeks ago we got a clean liquidity sweep on the daily, and right after that we saw a strong reaction to the downside that left a nice unfilled gap behind. Textbook stuff.
Now my plan is simple, I'm expecting price to push back up and fill that gap first (around the 99.2-99.5 zone)
Target: lower boundary of the range around 96.3 🎯
And since, DXY going down usually means good things for EUR, GBP, Gold and risk assets in general. Here's what I'd be watching:
EUR/USD — prime candidate for longs, inverse correlation with DXY is textbook
GBP/USD — same story, usually moves hand in hand with EUR
Gold (XAU/USD) — weaker dollar = stronger gold, classic play
What's your bias on the Dollar? Drop 📉 or 📈 below 🔥
50% Fib resistance ahead?US Dollar (DXY) is rising towards the pivot, which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse towards the 1st support, which is an overlap support.
Pivot: 99.14
1st Support: 98.00
1st Resistance: 100.51
Disclaimer:
The opinions given above constitute general market commentary and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended to be informative only, and are not advice, a recommendation, research, a record of our trading prices, an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past performance or forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast, or any information supplied by any third party.
US Dollar Index (DXY) and the expected scenarioThe DXY is currently trading on the daily timeframe in a significant correction zone. The last peak was at 100, and the price broke below that level. We are currently in a very important support zone on the weekly and monthly timeframes, and we expect an upward move from there. However, we will see how things unfold. Remember, trading is 90% patience and 10% safe execution. Omar Shaaban
DXY| FRGNT DAILY FORECAST | 4H STILL NOT CONVINCED JUST YET📅 Q2 | W17 | D21 | Y26 |
📊DXY| FRGNT DAILY FORECAST | 15' BOS UPSIDE
💡4H STILL NOT CONVINCED JUST YET
🔍 Analysis Framework
This forecast is built using an advanced adaptation of Smart Money Concepts, with a structured and disciplined approach:
• Marking Key Points of Interest (POIs) on Higher Time Frames (HTFs) 🕰️
• Defining a clear, controlled trading range from those zones 📐
• Refining entries on Lower Time Frames (LTFs) 🔎
• Waiting for confirmed Break of Structure (BoS) before execution ✅
This process ensures precision, removes emotional decision-making, and keeps me aligned with the overall market narrative.
💡 Core Philosophy
“Capital management, discipline, and consistency create longevity.”
A strong risk-to-reward model, paired with high-probability execution, is the foundation of sustainable trading 📈🔐
⚠️ Understanding Losses
"Losses are part of the game" — a mathematical certainty 🎲
They don’t define performance. Nor do they define you as a Trader.
They are managed, reviewed, and used as evidence for growth 📊
🙏 Final Note
Appreciate you taking the time to review today’s forecast.
Stay disciplined 🎯
Protect your capital 🔐
— FRGNT 🚀📈
📌 Disclaimer
This content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
It reflects my personal approach to the markets — a tested framework that has supported my own journey to consistent profitability in trading currencies.
TVC:DXY
Bearish reversal off overlap resistance?US Dollar is rising toward the resistance level, which is an overlap resistance and could reverse from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 98.92
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level.
Stop loss: 99.61
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 98.34
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
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DXY 4H – Momentum Building for Upside ExpansionDollar index shows a clear reaction after recent downside pressure, with price stabilizing and forming a base. The current structure suggests a potential shift in momentum as buyers begin to regain control following the sell-off.
If this recovery holds, we could see a continuation move higher as liquidity gets built and the market looks to rebalance inefficiencies created during the drop. Short-term volatility remains, but the intent is leaning toward expansion rather than further breakdown.
Traders should stay patient and focused on confirmation, as this phase often traps early entries before the real move unfolds.
Disclosure: We are part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in our analysis.
DXY | Will The Index Grind Higher Amid Positive Data?Macro approach:
- The US dollar index gained ground as fears of a Middle East ceasefire breakdown resurfaced.
- The US flash April Composite PMI climbed, with broad-based sector expansion signaling resilient economic growth despite ongoing geopolitical tensions, reinforcing a higher-for-longer rate outlook.
- The US dollar index may stay supported if conflict risks continue to escalate.
Technical approach:
- DXY created higher swings after retesting EMA78. The price is above both EMAs and the ascending trendline, suggesting an uptrend continuation potential.
- If DXY remains above the ascending trendline and both EMAs, the price may surge toward the immediate resistance at 99.13.
- Conversely, breaking below both EMA and the support at 98.55 may prompt a further correction toward the following support at 98.30.
Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
USDCAD | GBPJPY | AUDUSD COMBINED +11% TRADING DAY📈Q2 | W17| D23 | Y26 |
📊USDCAD | GBPJPY | AUDUSD COMBINED +11% TRADING DAY
💡USDCAD OVERNIGHT HOLD CLOSED AT DXY DAILY 50 EMA + 3.27%
💡GBPJPY +2 %
💡AUDUSD + 6%
🔍 Analysis Framework
This forecast is built using an advanced adaptation of Smart Money Concepts, with a structured and disciplined approach:
• Marking Key Points of Interest (POIs) on Higher Time Frames (HTFs) 🕰️
• Defining a clear, controlled trading range from those zones 📐
• Refining entries on Lower Time Frames (LTFs) 🔎
• Waiting for confirmed Break of Structure (BoS) before execution ✅
This process ensures precision, removes emotional decision-making, and keeps me aligned with the overall market narrative.
💡 Core Philosophy
“Capital management, discipline, and consistency create longevity.”
A strong risk-to-reward model, paired with high-probability execution, is the foundation of sustainable trading 📈🔐
⚠️ Understanding Losses
"Losses are part of the game" — a mathematical certainty 🎲
They don’t define performance. Nor do they define you as a Trader.
They are managed, reviewed, and used as evidence for growth 📊
🙏 Final Note
Appreciate you taking the time to review today’s forecast.
Stay disciplined 🎯
Protect your capital 🔐
— FRGNT 🚀📈
📌 Disclaimer
This content is provided for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
It reflects my personal approach to the markets — a tested framework that has supported my own journey toward consistent profitability in currency trading.
Please understand that any forecasts shared are not financial advice. I will be looking for confirmation in line with my setup model and specific entry criteria from the key areas identified on the chart.
All analysis, whether presented via image or video, is shared strictly for educational insight and is not intended to breach any TradingView House Rules.






















