The S&P500 index (SPX) since the 2025 Trade War, has been displaying a similar pattern as the post 2018 Trade War. Both events caused by President Trump, both resulting into a -21% correction towards the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) that eventually gave way to a 1-year +46% recovery.
Notice how on both Trade War bottoms, the 1W RSI got oversold (30.00) and bounced. We had at least one test of the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) in between, and that brings us to today, 1 year after and at +48.80% from the April 2025 Trade War bottom.
Needless to say the February - March 2020 flash-crash was caused by the COVID outbreak (and subsequent quarantines), which is a Black Swan event that cannot be projected. But the two fractals undeniably look very similar technically and based on the technical side, another 1W MA200 test to get the 1W RSI oversold again, wouldn't be unrealistic (potentially above 5700). Especially with the 4-year Cycle model kicking in. Could a reversal on the U.S. - Iran war be the catalyst or something else (inflation, Fed rate hiking)? That remains to be seen.
---
** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. **
---
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
💸💸💸💸💸💸
👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Notice how on both Trade War bottoms, the 1W RSI got oversold (30.00) and bounced. We had at least one test of the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) in between, and that brings us to today, 1 year after and at +48.80% from the April 2025 Trade War bottom.
Needless to say the February - March 2020 flash-crash was caused by the COVID outbreak (and subsequent quarantines), which is a Black Swan event that cannot be projected. But the two fractals undeniably look very similar technically and based on the technical side, another 1W MA200 test to get the 1W RSI oversold again, wouldn't be unrealistic (potentially above 5700). Especially with the 4-year Cycle model kicking in. Could a reversal on the U.S. - Iran war be the catalyst or something else (inflation, Fed rate hiking)? That remains to be seen.
---
** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. **
---
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
💸💸💸💸💸💸
👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Trade Forex on TradingView (zero commissions)👉 go.tradenation.com/visit/?bta=37104&brand=tradenation
I trade Crypto (perps/swaps) with👉 app.defi.app/join/5b8X2l
Funded trading -10% off👉 hyrotrader.com/?coupon=tradingshot
I trade Crypto (perps/swaps) with👉 app.defi.app/join/5b8X2l
Funded trading -10% off👉 hyrotrader.com/?coupon=tradingshot
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Trade Forex on TradingView (zero commissions)👉 go.tradenation.com/visit/?bta=37104&brand=tradenation
I trade Crypto (perps/swaps) with👉 app.defi.app/join/5b8X2l
Funded trading -10% off👉 hyrotrader.com/?coupon=tradingshot
I trade Crypto (perps/swaps) with👉 app.defi.app/join/5b8X2l
Funded trading -10% off👉 hyrotrader.com/?coupon=tradingshot
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.