I’m watching CADJPY closely here because this is one of those setups where fundamentals and structure are finally aligning again. After a messy corrective phase, price has rebuilt momentum cleanly, and now we’re pushing back into a key resistance zone with intent. This isn’t just a bounce — it’s a recovery phase that looks like it wants continuation, provided the macro backdrop doesn’t shift against it.
Current Bias:
Bullish (4H timeframe focus)
Momentum has shifted back to the upside with higher lows and a clear reclaim of structure. As long as we hold above recent support, continuation is favored.
Technical Posture & Price Action:
Clear transition from downtrend → accumulation → breakout
Strong bullish leg breaking previous structure
Formation of higher highs and higher lows
Current price approaching major resistance around 116.70
What matters here:
The prior downtrend line has been decisively broken
The market respected higher low structure on the pullbacks
Current move is impulsive, not corrective
This suggests:
👉 Buyers are in control again
Indicator & Volume Analysis:
Momentum indicators (RSI/MACD contextually) likely trending bullish
No visible divergence structure from price behavior
Breakout leg shows strong expansion → momentum-backed move
Volume behavior (structural inference):
Breakout phase likely supported by increased participation
Pullbacks are shallow → low selling pressure
👉 This is trend continuation behavior, not exhaustion
Key Fundamental Drivers:
Oil strength supporting CAD
JPY weakness driven by carry trade demand
Yield differentials continue to favor CAD over JPY
So the core driver is simple:
👉 CAD strength + JPY weakness = upside pressure
Macro Context:
Bank of Japan remains accommodative relative to global peers
Carry trade demand remains active
Oil market stability supporting Canadian Dollar
At the same time:
No major tightening from BOJ to support JPY
Risk sentiment stable enough to maintain carry trades
👉 Macro still favors upside continuation
Primary Risk to the Trend:
The bullish setup fails if:
Price loses 114.80–115.00 support zone
Oil weakens significantly
BOJ signals policy tightening or intervention
Any of these would shift flows back into JPY strength.
Most Critical Upcoming News/Event:
Oil inventory and crude price developments
BOJ commentary or policy signals
Canadian economic data (especially growth/inflation)
Leader/Lagger Dynamics:
CADJPY is acting as a leader in carry + oil flows.
It tends to:
Lead sentiment in commodity-linked carry trades
Move in alignment with oil strength
Reflect broader risk appetite
It often influences:
👉 AUDJPY, NZDJPY sentiment
Key Levels:
Support Levels:
115.00
114.20
Resistance Levels:
116.70
117.20
Stop Loss (SL) & Invalidation Point:
Below 114.80
Take Profit (TP) Targets:
TP1: 116.70
TP2: 117.20
Summary: Bias and Watchpoints:
I’m bullish on CADJPY here, but this isn’t blind momentum chasing — it’s structure-driven. The trend has clearly shifted back to higher lows and higher highs, and price is now testing a key resistance zone around 116.70. If that breaks cleanly, continuation toward 117.20 becomes the next logical move.
The real driver behind this trade is alignment: oil is supporting CAD, while JPY remains weak due to carry conditions. That combination is powerful — but also fragile if macro shifts.
For me, the key level is 114.80. As long as we stay above it, dips are likely to be bought. Lose that, and the structure starts to break down.
This is one of the cleaner setups right now — but only as long as the fundamentals keep backing it.
Current Bias:
Bullish (4H timeframe focus)
Momentum has shifted back to the upside with higher lows and a clear reclaim of structure. As long as we hold above recent support, continuation is favored.
Technical Posture & Price Action:
Clear transition from downtrend → accumulation → breakout
Strong bullish leg breaking previous structure
Formation of higher highs and higher lows
Current price approaching major resistance around 116.70
What matters here:
The prior downtrend line has been decisively broken
The market respected higher low structure on the pullbacks
Current move is impulsive, not corrective
This suggests:
👉 Buyers are in control again
Indicator & Volume Analysis:
Momentum indicators (RSI/MACD contextually) likely trending bullish
No visible divergence structure from price behavior
Breakout leg shows strong expansion → momentum-backed move
Volume behavior (structural inference):
Breakout phase likely supported by increased participation
Pullbacks are shallow → low selling pressure
👉 This is trend continuation behavior, not exhaustion
Key Fundamental Drivers:
Oil strength supporting CAD
JPY weakness driven by carry trade demand
Yield differentials continue to favor CAD over JPY
So the core driver is simple:
👉 CAD strength + JPY weakness = upside pressure
Macro Context:
Bank of Japan remains accommodative relative to global peers
Carry trade demand remains active
Oil market stability supporting Canadian Dollar
At the same time:
No major tightening from BOJ to support JPY
Risk sentiment stable enough to maintain carry trades
👉 Macro still favors upside continuation
Primary Risk to the Trend:
The bullish setup fails if:
Price loses 114.80–115.00 support zone
Oil weakens significantly
BOJ signals policy tightening or intervention
Any of these would shift flows back into JPY strength.
Most Critical Upcoming News/Event:
Oil inventory and crude price developments
BOJ commentary or policy signals
Canadian economic data (especially growth/inflation)
Leader/Lagger Dynamics:
CADJPY is acting as a leader in carry + oil flows.
It tends to:
Lead sentiment in commodity-linked carry trades
Move in alignment with oil strength
Reflect broader risk appetite
It often influences:
👉 AUDJPY, NZDJPY sentiment
Key Levels:
Support Levels:
115.00
114.20
Resistance Levels:
116.70
117.20
Stop Loss (SL) & Invalidation Point:
Below 114.80
Take Profit (TP) Targets:
TP1: 116.70
TP2: 117.20
Summary: Bias and Watchpoints:
I’m bullish on CADJPY here, but this isn’t blind momentum chasing — it’s structure-driven. The trend has clearly shifted back to higher lows and higher highs, and price is now testing a key resistance zone around 116.70. If that breaks cleanly, continuation toward 117.20 becomes the next logical move.
The real driver behind this trade is alignment: oil is supporting CAD, while JPY remains weak due to carry conditions. That combination is powerful — but also fragile if macro shifts.
For me, the key level is 114.80. As long as we stay above it, dips are likely to be bought. Lose that, and the structure starts to break down.
This is one of the cleaner setups right now — but only as long as the fundamentals keep backing it.
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📊 Forex Signals | Free Daily Alerts
✅ 85% Accuracy | 1–2 Signals/Day
💰 Profitable Trades Sent Daily – No Cost
📲 Join Us on Telegram
t.me/ultreos_forex
🎯 Upgrade to VIP:
ultreosforex.com/
✅ 85% Accuracy | 1–2 Signals/Day
💰 Profitable Trades Sent Daily – No Cost
📲 Join Us on Telegram
t.me/ultreos_forex
🎯 Upgrade to VIP:
ultreosforex.com/
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.