XAUUSD(GOLD): Get Ready For Swing Sell! Trade Is Going To Be BigDear Traders,
As we mentioned in our previous analysis, gold is likely to continue falling. It did just that, but it then bounced back to the entry level. This is due to low market volume on Friday evening. As the week opens, we could see the price start dropping again as the week progresses. Furthermore, looking at the USD, we might see it showing signs of reversal and becoming bullish this week. This could also contribute to increased selling volume in the market. If you agree with our idea, please like and comment for more.
The Setupsfx_ Team
Futures market
BUY XAU/USD - Wedge Breakout (27.04.2026) XAU/USD is showing a potential wedge breakout pattern after price reacted strongly from the marked support zone. Gold has broken above the descending wedge trendline, suggesting that bullish momentum may be building for a move toward higher resistance levels. OANDA:XAUUSD
Support Zone:
The key support zone is around 4,658 – 4,678. This area acted as the main demand zone where buyers stepped in.
1st Resistance:
The first upside target is around 4,785.
2nd Resistance:
If bullish momentum continues, the next resistance level is around 4,829.
Fundamental Analysis :
1. The FedWatch tool is practically maxed out at 99% for a pause this week.
2. Kevin Warsh might take the lead at the Federal Reserve. He's seen as more "dovish" compared to Jerome Powell.
3. There’s optimism about potential Peace talks between Iran and the U.S.
Disclaimer ⚠️
This analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Always use proper risk management, wait for confirmation, and trade according to your own strategy.
#XAUUSD #Gold #GoldTrading #ForexTrading #ForexAnalysis #WedgeBreakout #BuySetup #PriceAction #TechnicalAnalysis #TradingView #KABHITATrading
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Gold Price Analysis – Key Support and Resistance LevelsThis chart provides a detailed analysis of Gold (XAU/USD), highlighting crucial support and resistance levels. The Key Resistance at 4,838 USD represents a significant point where price may face rejection, while Support Levels at 4,794 USD and 4,738 USD are expected to hold the price, providing potential for upward movement
Traders should monitor these levels for possible reversals or breakouts. The price behavior around these zones will help guide trading decisions based on market reactions. Keep a close watch on the trend for further opportunities
Gold Set for Potential Surge Ahead🚀 The XAU/USD chart shows a recent bearish correction after a strong bullish trend, with price breaking below a rising channel and forming lower highs. Multiple Change of Character signals indicate short-term weakness, but price is now consolidating near a key demand zone around 4,680–4,700, suggesting possible accumulation before a reversal.
Fundamentally, uncertainty following the attack on Donald Trump may increase safe-haven demand for gold, supporting a bullish outlook 📊. If buyers step in and confirm higher lows, momentum could shift upward.
The first target is 4,772, where initial resistance may appear 🎯. A successful breakout could push price toward the second target at 4,828, aligning with previous resistance levels 📈. With continued bullish strength and geopolitical tension, price may extend to the third target at 4,881 💰.
Overall, the setup favors a potential recovery, but confirmation is still required before strong continuation 🔥
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XAUUSD: Triangle Compression - Potential Drop to 4,630$ SupportHello everyone, here is my breakdown of the current XAUUSD setup.
Market Analysis
Gold previously traded within an upward channel, forming higher lows and confirming bullish momentum. After reaching zone around 4,800, price started to lose strength and entered a consolidation phase, forming a triangle structure with multiple breakouts and retests.
Currently, XAUUSD is trading below the 4,740 resistance zone while holding above the 4,630 support zone. A recent rejection from resistance and continued compression inside the triangle suggest building bearish pressure.
My Scenario & Strategy
As long as XAUUSD remains below the 4,740 resistance and respects the triangle structure, the bearish scenario remains valid. A rejection from this area could push price toward the 4,630 support (TP1).
However, if price breaks above 4,740 and holds, the bearish scenario would be invalidated, opening the path for further upside.
That’s the setup I’m tracking. Thank you for your attention, and always manage your risk.
Gold Breaks Triangle Structure - Possible Rebound Toward 4,800$Hello traders! Here is my technical outlook based on the current XAUUSD (4H) chart structure. Gold previously traded within a range, showing consolidation before breaking down and confirming bearish pressure. After the drop, price found a bottom and initiated a recovery, forming an ascending channel.Currently, the price is holding above the 4650 buyer zone, which acts as a strong support, approaching the 4800 resistance level (seller zone). At the same time, we are seeing a break of the triangle structure, which indicates buyer interest and bullish bias. A potential bounce from the 4650 zone could push the price to the 4800 resistance level (TP1). Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
GOLD: Waiting For The Buy Model To Set UpIn this Weekly Market Forecast, we will analyze Gold for the week of April 27 - May1st.
Gold has been going no where but sideways. But I believe that changes this week.
Not interested in shorting this market. Not with fundamentals supporting higher prices at the moment.
FOMC is Wednesday, and my weaken the USD. That would allow GOLD to surge, as it is struggling to move lower from the -FVG.
Patience will allow the market to unfold, and give me a queue to enter a valid buy model.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
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Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
Range Structure: Support Holding, Resistance AheadPrice is currePrice is currently reacting near a short-term resistance zone after bouncing from a defined support area and trendline. Structure shows a potential range with higher lows forming, suggesting buyers are attempting to gain control.
A break and hold above resistance could open the path toward the highlighted target zone, while rejection may lead to another retest of support. Key levels remain clearly defined, so monitoring price action around these zones is important for confirmation.
This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice.
WTI Crude Oil — Bullish Continuation Toward 100.33
This 1-hour chart of WTI Crude Oil shows a strong recovery from the mid-chart bottom, followed by a steady uptrend supported by a rising trendline. Price action is holding above the Ichimoku Cloud, indicating sustained bullish momentum.
Higher lows and higher highs confirm trend continuation, with price recently bouncing from both the ascending trendline and cloud support. The structure suggests buyers remain in control as long as price respects these dynamic support zones.
**Target:**
* Upside target: **100.33**
A continuation above recent highs and trendline support increases the probability of reaching this level. A breakdown below the cloud and trendline would weaken the bullish outlook.
COT Data: How Smart Money Positions Predict Major reversalHey whats up traders let's check on COT data. There is many ways how to use it and I dont use it same way as Larry Williams. Here is what works for me when following positions of the hig players that has to report their position's to the SEC.
This is important:
1️⃣ COT data isn’t a magic crystal ball—but it’s a powerful tool if you know how to combine it with technical analysis. You need to use your mechanical system. Not for Intraday Trading.
2️⃣ Remember they know we are watching this data and what we see is what they want us to see, so they are often trying to hide their positions as long as possible. Thats why intra-week reversal are happening on Wednesday after they report their positions in a Tuesday. And are published on Friday.
3️⃣ They cannot hide the data forever, follow the data week by week to keep in track whats happening. It will increase your winning ratio.
4️⃣ Every 3 months there is a new futures contract. The must close the positions and reopen them in to the new contract, They are using it for reversals.
5️⃣ If there is some US holidays on the day when report should be released to the public its delayed to the next week. And thats when they do biggest positions changes secretly.
‼️Think outside the box. Even when you see bearish COT - dont be stupid to sell low. It's not not order flow for intraday scalping, you have time. But if you something is clearly bearish every run above weekly and daily highs is high probability Sell in the smart money trend.
My goal is to understand if the last price swing move. How the orders has been there, basically trying to understand to what candles cannot tell me. Lets look to few examples.
🧪 EURUSD - we can see that on that lows, we had 190k longs, which has been around 59k net positions, which is the difference between the longs and shorts. Then as the price has been moving higher, we can see that the longs has been steadily growing up to the 250k average longs, but the shorts has been still around 130-120 range. So what we can see in this move is that the longs are growing, while shorts has been unchanged, which is resulting in the net positions growth from the 51k to the 115. So this move is supported as a bullish trend. 🧪 USDJPY - here is a little bit tricky because those who are just reading a COT data and just comparing long and shorts with just last past few weeks, which you can find on the SEC data, and you don't have a complete report, you will be misreading it. Because you can see that even though that since May, price has been going up in that circled swing, but if we look to the shorts, we can see that basically shorts has been decreasing while the longs has been increasing, right? And the result is in the net positions that we dropped from the negative minus 177K to the minus 82K. So even though that the net positions are still negative, they are actually coming from the very, very negative to the less negative, which is actually bullish. So therefore, we has to be watching a bigger picture like this. 🧪 XAUUSD - Now let's focus on this highlighted swing on the gold, where we can see that we had quite extreme longs during the January. There was a 356k longs. Then price has been swinging up in this red-circled highlighted swing. And watch what was happening with the positions. The longs basically has been decreasing. You can see that we dropped from the 356k to the 300k and all the way down to the 240k. So what that means? It means that the price is going up and the smart money, non-commercials, are taking profits, which is actually causing the big changes. You can see in the last column, the orange changes, and which actually is also a huge decrease in the net positions. So we can see the net positions have been around the 300k, and then it dropped to the 160k, right? And we can see the shorts didn't grow too much, but there was a difference between the longs exposure. So there was a profit-taking, hence we can expect a pullback, which has happened. 🧪 USDCAD - Here we have an example of the USDCAD and we can see on that swing price is dropping down, right? And we can see the shorts are basically around 16K, 20K, 19K, basically decreasing, right? Shorts are decreasing, but the longs have been added. So basically the price is dropping down to the weekly order block and we could be expecting bounce because as the price is dropping down, we can see how the longs have grew from the 80K to 127, 115, right? So the longs are growing while the price is going down. Net positions increasing, okay? So that we can expect a bullish reversal. And as we can see on this next picture, on that weekly order block, the bullish reversal has happened and price has completely reversed. 🧪 Dollar - let's focus on the column of the longs, where we can see that the longs are slightly growing, but what has been happening in this pullback, which has been happening into this weekly level, you can see how the shorts basically are decreasing. So shorts have decreased from 22K to the 13K, while the longs start to grow. And you can see the flip in the net positions from the minus 5K to plus 5K, right, which is signaling a bullish dollar. Therefore, I'm expecting a bullish move up, because it's all aligning with the price action. 🧪 EURUSD - let's focus on the column longs. We can see how the longs has decreased from 300k to the 214 and the shorts has increased from 138k to the 200, 188k, right? So we can see the net positions has been 180k in the February and now they are just 26k. And it has happened when the price has reached the monthly serious range and it's reversing. So therefore I'm expecting a price continue lower. 🚀Boost | 🔁 Share | 💬 Comment | ✅Follow for more Education
Adapt useful, Reject useless and add what is specifically yours.
David Perk
XAUUSDHello Traders! 👋
What are your thoughts on Gold?
The Gold (XAUUSD)chart is currently flashing significant signs of a trend reversal. After a prolonged period of consolidation within a corrective structure, the price has failed to clear a major resistance zone and is now confirming a bearish breakout.
A decisive break has occurred below the lower boundary of the Rising Wedge pattern.
The red box remains a heavy supply zone. Multiple rejections at this level have formed a Lower High structure, indicating that sellers are now firmly in control of the market.
The path of least resistance is now to the downside. As long as the price remains below the broken ascending trendline and the supply zone, the bearish outlook remains intact.
A strong breakout and acceptance above the supply zone would weaken the bearish outlook.
What is the next move for Gold? Share your thoughts and analysis in the comments! 👇
Please like and support if this analysis helps your trading! ❤️
GOLD - Technical AnalysisICMARKETS:XAUUSD bounced off the 4668 support level toward the end of Friday’s session following a long squeeze, thereby breaking the local bearish structure. The market’s next move depends on geopolitical developments.
The dollar closed Friday in the red, and technically, the index looks poised to continue its decline. Oil is stagnant. Gold, technically, is still under pressure from bears, but Friday’s session closed above Thursday’s close, which gives us positive signals, provided that the fundamental and geopolitical backdrop supports the market. (The previous idea—a break below 4668—remains valid, provided gold returns to that level.) This coming week, all eyes are on the U.S.-Iran negotiations, as well as fundamental data: the Fed’s rate decision, the regulator’s meeting, and GDP and inflation figures.
Resistance levels: 4740, 4795
Support levels: 4668, 4644, 4600
Technically, at the moment, I expect a bounce from 4700 (4688) and a retest of the 4740 liquidity zone. A close above 4740 will open the door for continued growth toward 4800.
However, if the price fails to react at 4700 and retreats to 4668, the likelihood of a further decline will resume.
Best regards, R. Linda!
Descending Trendline Compression into Demand — Potential BullishThis chart shows a market that has been in a clear short-term downtrend, defined by a descending trendline connecting lower highs. Price has now compressed into a key horizontal demand zone (~4700 area) while simultaneously interacting with that trendline — this is where things get interesting.
What’s happening:
Downtrend structure: Lower highs and lower lows respected the red descending trendline.
Demand zone: Price repeatedly reacts around the highlighted zone, suggesting buyers are active there.
Confluence: The latest touch combines trendline support + horizontal demand, increasing the probability of a reaction.
Bullish scenario (your drawn path):
A bounce from the demand zone holds.
Price breaks back above the descending trendline.
Reclaims the 4,742–4,754 resistance zone.
If that level flips to support, continuation higher becomes likely.
Bearish risk:
Clean breakdown below the demand zone invalidates the setup.
That would likely lead to continuation of the broader downtrend with new lows.
Key levels:
Support: ~4700 (demand zone)
Resistance: 4,742 → 4,754
Trend trigger: Break and hold above the descending trendline
Read on structure:
Right now this is not yet bullish — it’s a potential reversal zone. Confirmation comes only after:
Trendline break
Higher low formation
Resistance reclaim
Silver Rally with Incoming with Big TargetsXAGUSD is showing a strong potential bullish reversal after forming a clear inverse head and shoulders pattern, signaling a shift in market structure 📊. Price has respected the descending channel and is now attempting a breakout, indicating growing buyer momentum 🚀. The right shoulder formation suggests accumulation, while recent candles show rejection from lower levels, adding confidence to bullish continuation.
If momentum sustains, the first target at 75.62 looks achievable as immediate resistance turns into support 🎯. A clean breakout above this zone could push price toward the second target at 78.58, where stronger resistance may appear. Continued bullish pressure may drive price further to the third target at 80.40, completing the projected move 📈.
Overall, buyers are stepping in with strength, and trend reversal confirmation is building. Proper risk management remains key while following this bullish setup ⚡
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Gold Key Levels & Trend OutlookThis chart highlights key support and resistance levels for Gold, indicating potential areas for price bounce, pullback, or breakout. Key levels: 4659–4683 (strong support), 4701–4733 (minor
resistance / watch zone), 4768–4797 (key resistance / target), 4831–4880 (major resistance / top target). Traders can use this analysis for planning entries, exits, and managing risk.
XAUUSD BREAKOUT CONFIRMED — GOLD READY TO EXPLODE UP!XAU/USD is showing a clean breakout and retest from the falling trendline while holding firmly above a major demand/support zone. Price reaction from the red key zone suggests buyers are defending this level aggressively, increasing the probability of a bullish continuation. If momentum sustains above current structure, gold could push toward the next resistance zones marked above. A confirmed bounce from support often signals smart money accumulation before expansion higher. OANDA:XAUUSD
🔑 Key Levels:
Major Support Zone: 4653 – 4675
Immediate Resistance: 4810
Psychological Resistance: 4848
Bullish Invalidation: Break below 4650
📌 Trading Insight:
As long as price remains above the support zone, bias stays bullish. Rejection candles and higher lows near demand can trigger the next upward move.
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⚠️ Disclaimer
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GOLD Price Update – Clean & Clear ExplanationGold market is currently in a broader bearish structure, with price respecting a descending trendline and forming consistent lower highs. This confirms that sellers have been in control over the past sessions. However, in the short term, price is showing signs of a potential bullish retracement from a key demand zone.
Recently, price tapped into a strong support area around 4,690 – 4,700, where buyers stepped in and pushed the market upward. This reaction suggests liquidity was taken from the downside, and now the market is attempting to rebalance.
At the moment, price is trading near an internal structure zone, where we can expect some consolidation or minor pullback before the next move. The highlighted setup shows a possible buy opportunity, but only after a clean reaction or confirmation from this zone.
If buyers maintain control, the next target is the major resistance zone around 4,780 – 4,785, which aligns with the higher timeframe supply and descending trendline. A break above this resistance would signal a potential shift in structure and continuation toward higher levels.
On the downside, if price fails to hold the current zone and breaks below 4,690, it would invalidate the bullish idea and likely lead to a continuation of the bearish trend, targeting lower liquidity levels.
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Gold: The Trap is Sprung! Target $4,540 as Rejection ConfirmedThe Macro Context 🛰️
Gold remains under immense pressure as the macro landscape favors the Greenback. With the US Dollar Index (DXY) hitting fresh 2026 highs and Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh maintaining a hawkish tone regarding persistent energy-driven inflation, the "opportunity cost" of holding non-yielding Gold is rising. While geopolitical tensions remain, the market is currently treating the Iran-Israel stalemate as a long-term economic drag rather than an imminent kinetic explosion, prompting a rotation out of bullion and into USD cash.
The Setup: Nested Wedges & Structural Exhaustion 🧩
The 1-hour chart reveals a high-precision bearish roadmap:
The Macro Structure: Gold is trapped within a massive Descending Broadening Wedge. This pattern indicates that while volatility is expanding, the bears are successfully defending every major relief rally.
The Rejection: Notice the "Sell area" near $4,730. This level acted as a brick wall over the weekend, flushing out buyers who were hoping for a breakout above the macro resistance.
The "Retest": Price is currently in a local "Retest" phase (around $4,700 – $4,710). This is the underside of the local wedge support that was broken earlier. In technical terms, old support has been successfully flipped into new resistance.
The Roadmap: Destination $4,540 🎯
Following the purple projection, the path of least resistance points to a deep liquidity hunt:
Immediate Resistance: The $4,725 – $4,735 zone (Sell area) must hold to keep the bearish thesis intact.
The Forecast: We expect the current "Retest" to fail, leading to an impulsive leg lower as stop-losses below $4,680 are triggered.
Primary Target: $4,540 (The macro Support line).
Invalidation: A clean 4H close above $4,760 would negate this setup and suggest a neutral consolidation phase.
Bottom Line 💡
WTI Crude Oil Price Analysis – Key Support and Resistance LevelsThis chart provides a professional overview of WTI Crude Oil (US Dollar) price action, highlighting critical support and resistance levels. Key resistance at 108.80 USD suggests potential price rejection, while support
at 93.22 USD offers a strong foundation for possible bullish reversals. The trend line indicates overall bullish momentum, guiding price movement upwards, and traders should monitor for possible price action near these levels.
With target resistance at 113.53 USD, the market may continue to push higher, but price action at these critical zones will dictate the next move. Keep an eye on the support zone at 83.03 USD and 80.00 USD for potential reversals.
XAU/USD | Gold at a Key Decision Level – Waiting for Direction!By analyzing the #Gold chart on the 4H timeframe, we can see that price opened the week with a bearish gap down to around $4672, but buyers quickly stepped in and pushed it back up toward $4739. However, this move lacked continuation and price is now trading around the $4692 region, sitting right at a critical support area.
From a structural perspective, the $4680 – $4700 zone is currently acting as a key demand area. As long as price manages to hold and stabilize above this level, we can expect another bullish attempt toward the nearest supply zones at $4725 – $4750, followed by $4780 – $4820 as the next major resistance cluster. In this case, short-term upside targets would be $4725, $4750, and then $4780.
On the other hand, if price fails to hold above this demand zone and we see a clean breakdown, the market could enter another bearish leg toward lower liquidity levels. In that scenario, the next downside targets would be $4665, followed by $4640, and potentially $4600 as selling pressure builds.
Overall, this is a key reaction zone where the next directional move will likely be determined. Keep in mind that the market remains highly sensitive to geopolitical developments, and any shift in tensions between Iran and the US could quickly change the direction of Gold.
Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me !
Best Regards , Arman Shaban
THE KOG REPORT THE KOG REPORT:
In last week’s KOG Report we said we would want price to come down into the lower defence region of 4785-95 which is where we wanted the long trade to come from. On open, we managed to breach the 1H RB and activate the bias level which brought us to the level we wanted for the short but as you can see, we broke below the defence region. We had marked the lower level for another attempt which we did get successfully, resulting in the long and then more ranging price action which gave us some extremely good scalping opportunities.
During the week we gave our updates on the path and the RB targets which worked well but we didn’t get that higher level we wanted.
A successful week in Camelot however with our indicators and algo playing their part, not only on gold but the numerous pairs we trade and analyse.
So, what can we expect in the week ahead?
Again, due to news over the weekend we may open with gaps across the markets for that reason we’ll say we’ll stick with the plan but traders need to be aware of the extreme movement we may see from the open.
We have a resistance level above at the 4735 level with support below at 4704 and below that 4675-90. We would need 4735 to hold price down on the open to then target the breach of 4710 making it easier for price to attempt the lower levels before attempting the long trade from the lower defence regions sitting at the 4610-20 region at extreme. We need to hold above that level to go higher, failure to do so can result in a lower move into the 4550s.
On the flip, higher defence here sits at the 4754 level, we’ll use that level as the bias for this week and say we will need a strong break above to then go higher.
We would expect a choppy open and first day of the week, while price should settle closer to the FOMC statement which is expected on Wednesday. We’ll update traders with the FOMC KOG Report prior to the statement.
RED BOX TARGETS:
BREAK ABOVE 4710 for 4729, 4735, 4741, 4750 and 4756 in extension of the move
BREAK BELOW 4689 for 4680, 4675, 4665 and 4658 in extension of the move
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As always, trade safe.
KOG
Gold Rejection From Resistance Targets Lower LevelsGold is pulling back from a lower high and approaching the 0.5–0.618 Fibonacci support zone, where buyers may attempt to stabilize price. The overall structure shows rejection from resistance, suggesting short-term bearish pressure while price remains below the resistance band.
If price reacts positively from the 4,721–4,708 Fibonacci support zone, a corrective move back toward the 4,749 resistance may occur. However, a confirmed break below the 0.618 level could expose the downside toward the 4,669 target zone.
Bias:
Short-term bearish below resistance, with downside risk increasing if Fibonacci support fails.
Educational purposes only — not financial advice.






















