Did you play chess before?
For me, i started playing it in the past 3 days, and even though i reached a nice speed rank, the performance and game review still show the blind movement! And this is EXACTLY what Saylor is doing! Let me show you the data:
He bought $1.5B at $52K (March), then added $3B at $60K+ (November) - always buying the momentum, not the value! Now MSTR down -50% from $360 while BTC only -10%... You see the pattern?!
Weeks ago (Oct 1, around $360) i told my friend, "If I play with 1-2, I will say this guy is ass*** and i will try to cost him a loss, and i will play the game to make him buy my sells then rekt him and buy his loss."
Just a few weeks and here we are! MSTR losing -50% and BTC run to his buy AVG $74K, yes, he is still in a safe zone, but the real game starts now!
The Technical Setup (this is where it gets interesting!):
So i use multiple methods - GANN 50% retracement hitting at $145, Fibonacci Golden Pocket at $152-163, and Volume Profile showing the highest trades at $147. Even RSI at 28 is showing divergence while price is making new lows!
Here's my trade plan:
Entry Zone: $145-155 (I'm scaling in here!)
Target 1: $183 (taking 25% off)
Target 2: $190 (another 50% off)
Stop Loss: $139 (below monthly support)
Risk/Reward: 1:2.8 (this is a beautiful setup!)
But wait, there's more data!
The correlation is crazy:
MSTR/BTC: 0.84 correlation
BTC/NDQ: 0.72 (and rising!)
If MSTR breaks $140, we could see BTC at $83-79K and NDQ dropping 5-8%!
Will Saylor survive? Here's the math:
BTC needs to hit $29K for margin calls - that's NOT happening!
He has $3.2B in unencumbered BTC
Bonds not due until 2027-2029
His software business still makes $50M quarterly.
So he plays it nicely, and the team behind still has more to do! Strategic Bitcoin Reserve talks, Gensler leaving, Q1 2025 crypto regulations - they're doing their best to make everything hold!
The sentiment data (this is golden!):
Fear & Greed: 25 (Extreme Fear)
Put/Call ratio: 2.3 (highest since 2022!)
Social volume: -78% last 7 days
You know what this means?! Smart money accumulating while retail panicking!
My analysis using:
GANN boxes on log scale (this is KEY!)
Custom MA ribbons with volume weighting
Multi-timeframe RSI divergence
Fibonacci zones from multiple swings
So what's the play?!
If you're conservative:
Wait for the weekly close above $180
Scale by 25% at a time
Use BTC/GOLD as a hedge
If you're aggressive like me:
Accumulate $145-155 NOW +2% invest
Sell $190+225 calls for income
Consider the BTC/MSTR pair trade
Next 30 days watch:
Monthly close Dec 31 (CRITICAL!)
Q4 BTC purchases announcement
Fed meeting Jan 29
MSTR earnings Feb 3
Anyway!
Would MSTR be saved now and rebound?! YES!
Professional accumulation is happening at these levels - the risk/reward is too good!
they do their best to make everything hold, the system is upgraded, the thinking scale has become faster than your mind now!
So, we're all here to make profits, and i wish i could short MSTR at $360, but now I'm buying!
if you like what you read and what you see, please press the like button, and your comments are welcome
Thanks, tradingview, for giving me a space here!
we ask Allah to reconcile and repay
#MSTR #Bitcoin #CryptoTrading #Saylor
Trade active
at $127Trade closed: target reached
Closing half here with +34% profits we ask Allah to reconcile and repay
Senior Market Analyst | 17yrs | 8 On TradingView Top Author 2018-2020
1500+ documented analyses | 84% accuracy across all cycles
procryptosignals.com/HamadaMark
1500+ documented analyses | 84% accuracy across all cycles
procryptosignals.com/HamadaMark
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Senior Market Analyst | 17yrs | 8 On TradingView Top Author 2018-2020
1500+ documented analyses | 84% accuracy across all cycles
procryptosignals.com/HamadaMark
1500+ documented analyses | 84% accuracy across all cycles
procryptosignals.com/HamadaMark
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.