Week 17 of 52 - MSTR You’re Either Early… or Completely WrongNASDAQ:MSTR Everyone sees a bounce… few see the weakness underneath.
After a sharp sell-off, MSTR is attempting a recovery — but the structure tells a different story.
What we are seeing here is not strength… it’s a relief rally.
Price is still respecting the broader downtrend, consistently forming lower highs and showing weak reactions on every push up. The recent move higher looks clean, but when you zoom out, it lacks the aggression you would expect from a true trend reversal.
There are two key levels to watch:
➝ $180 — Decision zone
This is where bulls get tested.
A clean reclaim and hold above this level could open the door for continuation and a potential move toward the $200–220 area.
➝ $140 — Last line of defense
If price rolls over and loses this level, the entire bounce narrative breaks.
That would suggest this move was just another lower high within a broader bearish structure.
Right now, the market is at a point where both scenarios are valid.
That’s where most traders get trapped — chasing strength without confirmation or shorting too early without structure.
Key takeaway:
➝ Not every bounce is a reversal
➝ Structure matters more than momentum
➝ The best trades come from patience, not prediction
If this turns into a confirmed trend, there will be plenty of opportunities.
If it fails, the downside can come fast.
Let the market decide.
This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk accordingly.
In-depth trading ideas
STRATEGY: This is the perfect spot to re-sell like April 2022.Strategy has turned neutral on its 1W technical outlook (RSI = 47.670, MACD = -33.360, ADX = 28.820) due to the strong rally of the past 2 weeks. As it approaches the LH trendline of the Bear Cycle and more importantly the 1D MA200, it becomes a strong sell opportunity as that was the market's (R)esistance during the 2022 Bear Cycle. The two Cycles are identical so far and there is no reason not to expect this to continues. Projection: almost -90% total decline (TP = 60.00).
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Growth Strategy continues to work, but not as wellI’ll complement idea for the Strategy idea, this is a ready-made strategy for growth. We opened a position from $140.
Now the price has moved in our direction and we can put a stop at $148, so in the worst case scenario we will earn at least 10%!
NASDAQ:MSTR MSTR shares are currently up +6% and there is a high chance that growth could accelerate.
In an optimistic scenario, the growth potential from the current ones is +40% and we will probably quickly reach the level of $234 and possibly $301!
This will be followed by an inevitable fall to the levels of $110-$130 to restart a new growth cycle! On a large timeframe, a technical “head and shoulders” pattern is clearly visible!
So there will be at least 1 more panic sale this year.
It will be very important to buy back the next dips in Bitcoin, as the long-term growth potential for Bitcoin from analysts is impressive!
I plan to develop this idea as it grows, you can find even more ideas for indices and commodities on my channels
MSTR Chess Game: When Smart Money Plays Against Saylor!
Did you play chess before?
For me, i started playing it in the past 3 days, and even though i reached a nice speed rank, the performance and game review still show the blind movement! And this is EXACTLY what Saylor is doing! Let me show you the data:
He bought $1.5B at $52K (March), then added $3B at $60K+ (November) - always buying the momentum, not the value! Now MSTR down -50% from $360 while BTC only -10%... You see the pattern?!
Weeks ago (Oct 1, around $360) i told my friend, "If I play with 1-2, I will say this guy is ass*** and i will try to cost him a loss, and i will play the game to make him buy my sells then rekt him and buy his loss."
Just a few weeks and here we are! MSTR losing -50% and BTC run to his buy AVG $74K, yes, he is still in a safe zone, but the real game starts now!
The Technical Setup (this is where it gets interesting!):
So i use multiple methods - GANN 50% retracement hitting at $145, Fibonacci Golden Pocket at $152-163, and Volume Profile showing the highest trades at $147. Even RSI at 28 is showing divergence while price is making new lows!
Here's my trade plan:
Entry Zone: $145-155 (I'm scaling in here!)
Target 1: $183 (taking 25% off)
Target 2: $190 (another 50% off)
Stop Loss: $139 (below monthly support)
Risk/Reward: 1:2.8 (this is a beautiful setup!)
But wait, there's more data!
The correlation is crazy:
MSTR/BTC: 0.84 correlation
BTC/NDQ: 0.72 (and rising!)
If MSTR breaks $140, we could see BTC at $83-79K and NDQ dropping 5-8%!
Will Saylor survive? Here's the math:
BTC needs to hit $29K for margin calls - that's NOT happening!
He has $3.2B in unencumbered BTC
Bonds not due until 2027-2029
His software business still makes $50M quarterly.
So he plays it nicely, and the team behind still has more to do! Strategic Bitcoin Reserve talks, Gensler leaving, Q1 2025 crypto regulations - they're doing their best to make everything hold!
The sentiment data (this is golden!):
Fear & Greed: 25 (Extreme Fear)
Put/Call ratio: 2.3 (highest since 2022!)
Social volume: -78% last 7 days
You know what this means?! Smart money accumulating while retail panicking!
My analysis using:
GANN boxes on log scale (this is KEY!)
Custom MA ribbons with volume weighting
Multi-timeframe RSI divergence
Fibonacci zones from multiple swings
So what's the play?!
If you're conservative:
Wait for the weekly close above $180
Scale by 25% at a time
Use BTC/GOLD as a hedge
If you're aggressive like me:
Accumulate $145-155 NOW +2% invest
Sell $190+225 calls for income
Consider the BTC/MSTR pair trade
Next 30 days watch:
Monthly close Dec 31 (CRITICAL!)
Q4 BTC purchases announcement
Fed meeting Jan 29
MSTR earnings Feb 3
Anyway!
Would MSTR be saved now and rebound?! YES!
Professional accumulation is happening at these levels - the risk/reward is too good!
they do their best to make everything hold, the system is upgraded, the thinking scale has become faster than your mind now!
So, we're all here to make profits, and i wish i could short MSTR at $360, but now I'm buying!
if you like what you read and what you see, please press the like button, and your comments are welcome
Thanks, tradingview, for giving me a space here!
we ask Allah to reconcile and repay
#MSTR #Bitcoin #CryptoTrading #Saylor
MSTR weekly Time@Mode buy signal: retrace setup activeGM lads,
A fresh weekly Time at Mode signal fired on MSTR this week. The monthly cycle signal published April 15, framed as an "October 2022 déjà vu", remains live and in profit from the publication date. Structure supports a buy-on-retrace entry within the next three weeks.
Best of luck!
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
*Signals only, not investment advice.*
Key Resistance & Targets: Mid-term and Long-term OutlookThis is a key zone for taking partial profits or closing positions entirely. On April 22nd, I published a BTC short based on my view that we are completing a Wave Y, with targets around the $50k region. Although Strategy doesn't track BTC 100%, I believe the correlation will hold for this move.
Possible Scenarios:
Price holds at $148 and continues the uptrend.
A move toward the $100 - $90 region (one of my primary targets).
Note: If neither of these levels holds, my main target lies between $64 and $56.
This is my outlook for the coming months. Please do not take this as financial advice or 100% certainty—always Do Your Own Research (DYOR).
Note: While the screenshot is in regular scale, the actual analysis is based on logarithmic scale for better accuracy.
UPDATE
Strategy Inc —Perfect ABC correction, a repeat of 2021-22Strategy Inc (MSTR) went through the exact same sequence in 2021-22. A perfect ABC correction. The end of wave C produced the highest volume (bearish) and also the bottom. It lasted 455 days.
The current bear market drew a perfect ABC correction. The end of wave C has the highest volume (bearish). It has been going for 441 days.
Both corrections deleted the preceding bullish move in its totality. Looks like this correction reached its end.
Log chart:
Namaste.
$MSTR — Multi-Layer Probabilistic SetupNASDAQ:MSTR — Multi-Layer Probabilistic Setup
Strategy Inc at the most consequential technical level since the 2024 top, with a fully-stacked signal environment. Here's the synthesis:
Macro layer:
BTC ~$75K, exactly at MSTR's $75,527 average cost basis. Iran tensions flaring — diplomatic talks reportedly canceled today. Last week MSTR purchased 34,164 BTC for $2.54B (third-largest single purchase ever), bringing holdings to 815,061 BTC. MSTR -2.5% pre-market on the disclosure.
Catalyst layer:
Q1 earnings + live webinar coming. Shareholder vote June 8 on semi-monthly dividend restructuring (designed to compress STRC yield and fund more BTC purchases). Analyst targets span $188-$385 (no consensus), midpoint ~$285.
Technical layer:
Weekly chart: 18-month descending channel resistance being tested at $180-190. Price recovered from $104 capitulation low. Currently $170, RSI 47 climbing from oversold. First green weekly off the 0.886 fib bounce.
Flow layer (today, $53.5M premium, 483 trades):
Net -$8.8M bear. Most active strike $200C at $11.97M with majority SOLD on bid. Repeated $175C selling in the afternoon. Institutions systematically capping upside at $175-200 across multiple expiries.
Probabilistic scenario map (15-day):
Range-bound (45%): $147-$190 chop, BTC stays $73-78K
Rejection (30%): Reject $190, retrace to $147-$144
Breakout (15%): BTC >$80K → MSTR $209-$238
Capitulation (10%): BTC <$70K → MSTR $120-$104
Expected value: -3.95%. Slight bearish skew matches the flow.
Trade construction:
Primary (high-probability income): Sell May 15 $190/$200 call credit spread. Collect premium aligned with institutional flow. ~65-70% probability of profit on scenario weights.
Secondary (breakout reaction): Wait for BTC weekly close above $80K, then long MSTR on $190+ break. Stop $175. T1 $209, T2 $238, T3 $280 Equilibrium.
Tertiary (capitulation): Stink bid at $130-140 with small size. Or sell May 15 $130/$120 put credit spread for premium with defined risk.
Why not chase $170:
Asymmetry is bad. ~13% to first resistance ($190) vs ~15% to first support ($147). With negative-EV scenario weights and bearish flow, the math says wait.
The MSTR-BTC reality:
MSTR is now sitting at break-even on its $75,527 cost basis. Every dollar BTC moves = amplified through the entire treasury. With BTC at $75K and Iran-driven volatility, the 1.5-2x BTC up / 2-3x BTC down asymmetry is currently symmetric, not bullish-asymmetric.
Best instrument for the thesis: options spreads, not equity. IV is rich, theta works for sellers, and defined-risk spreads protect against the binary BTC outcome.
Process over prediction. Risk-first, always.
NFA. Educational only.
MSTR is not a stock anymore — it’s a leveraged Bitcoin betMost people still look at MicroStrategy as a “tech company”
They’re wrong
At this point, MSTR = Bitcoin proxy with leverage
And understanding this changes everything
🧠 Fundamental view
MicroStrategy has aggressively accumulated BTC over the years
The company holds one of the largest Bitcoin reserves in the world
But the key point is not just holdings
It’s how they finance it
They issue:
• debt
• convertible bonds
To buy more BTC
💡 This creates a unique structure:
When BTC goes up → MSTR outperforms BTC
When BTC goes down → MSTR gets hit harder
It’s basically a leveraged long on Bitcoin
📊 Market positioning
Right now we’re in a phase where:
• sentiment is still weak
• many participants are short
• funding rates on BTC are at extreme lows
Historically, this setup appeared in:
• March 2020
• 2021
• 2022
And each time → it led to strong upside moves
👉 If BTC continues higher → we can see a massive short squeeze
And MSTR will amplify that move
📈 MSTR Trade Idea
Entry: $169
Stop Loss: $132 (-17%)
Targets:
• $223
• $260
• $347
Risk/Reward: up to 4–8R ⚖️
📊 Technical reasoning
• Breakout of mid-term descending channel on rising volume
• Reclaim of MA200w → major trend shift signal
• Price approaching key resistance at $173
• RSI exiting oversold zone → momentum recovery
• Indicator trendline break → confirmation of reversal structure
MSTR is not just a chart
It’s a derivative of BTC sentiment
Then Bitcoin enters a strong upside phase → MSTR becomes one of the best performers on the market
👉 If you want to trade like a professional and not like a gambler — follow for real insights and strategies 🚀
MSTR at Structural Support - Leveraged Bitcoin Proxy Setting Up?The Setup:
MSTR has retraced aggressively and is now testing a major weekly support zone aligned with the 200-week moving average — a level that historically defines long-term trend continuation vs breakdown.
Price is compressing after a prolonged down move, suggesting:
seller exhaustion
volatility contraction
potential for expansion move
At the same time, the structure is forming a base near prior accumulation, not a random level.
The Real Trade (What You’re Actually Buying)
This is not a typical equity trade.
MSTR is effectively a leveraged proxy on Bitcoin
combined with active capital structure engineering
You are trading:
→ BTC direction
→ + financial leverage
→ + reflexive equity issuance model
Why the Model Works
MicroStrategy runs a reflexive loop:
COINBASE:BTCUSD rises
NASDAQ:MSTR outperforms (beta > 1)
Company issues equity at a premium
Buys more BTC
Reinforces NAV growth
As long as:
BTC trend = up
Market allows premium to NAV→ the system becomes self-reinforcing
Technical + Macro Alignment
This setup becomes high probability only if:
BTC holds higher lows / reclaims trend
Liquidity conditions stabilize or improve
Risk assets regain momentum
If those align, MSTR typically:
→ moves faster
→ trends harder
→ overshoots on both sides
Risk (Critical)
This is not a defensive asset.
Breakdown scenario:
BTC continues lower
NAV compresses
Premium disappears
→ MSTR can underperform sharply
Loss of this support zone = thesis invalidation.
Trade Plan (Clean & Actionable)
Bull case:
Hold current support
Reclaim short-term structure
→ continuation toward prior supply zones
Invalidation:
Clean weekly close below support
→ avoid / exit
Bottom Line
MSTR is not just “a stock that owns Bitcoin.”
It is a capital machine designed to accumulate Bitcoin using market premiums.
When the cycle turns:
→ it doesn’t just follow BTC
→ it amplifies it
If this level holds, this is where asymmetric setups begin to form - not after the move.
MSTR Monthly – Time@Mode cycle signal: October 2022 déjà vu?Time at Mode just fired a downtrend expiration signal on the MSTR monthly originating from October 2025, and it's structurally the same setup as the one from January to Oct 2022. I want to break down why I think that matters.
Then vs. now
January 2022: bearish Time@Mode signal triggers, Fed launches the most aggressive tightening cycle since the '80s.
What followed was a wrecking ball. LUNA, Three Arrows, Celsius, FTX. MSTR bled from $90 to the $15 zone by October 2022, falling by two times the projected range target. That kind of overshoot is textbook capitulation, and it's exactly where the system flags high-probability reversals when the projected time duration for the move pans out.
Now look at today. The October 2025 signal fired with BTC peaking at $126K and MSTR topping near $457. Since then, MSTR has corrected to $137 (70% drawdown), BTC to $71K. Once again, the move has run to almost 2x the projected range in MSTR.
Macro rhymes
Different catalysts, same function: peak uncertainty, max fear, forced liquidation.
2022: Fed hiking into inflation, crypto contagion (LUNA -> 3AC -> FTX), institutional capitulation across the board.
2025-26: U.S.-Iran conflict (Hormuz disruption, oil above $100), tariff escalation on multiple fronts, Fed frozen at 3.50-3.75%, crypto down $2T+ from the October peak.
Both times the narrative at the signal zone was uniformly bearish. October 2022, nobody would touch MSTR. It was a "zero" trade. Today feels the same: Strategy just posted a $14.5B unrealized loss in Q1, BTC is 44% off highs, CryptoQuant is flagging a bear regime they call "worse than 2022."
What happened after October 2022
BTC went from $16K to $126K. About 8x. MSTR, being the leveraged beta play, went from $15 to $457. About 30x. The fuel: spot ETF anticipation, the 2024 halving, and the Fed finally cutting in September 2024.
What could fuel this one
Wars are expensive. Deficits expand. Eventually the Fed has to accommodate. Same script as post-2022 tightening, just with geopolitical spending as the forcing function instead of plandemic stimulus unwind.
Saylor holds 780,897 BTC at $59B cost basis and is still buying through the STRC preferred program with $48B in remaining ATM capacity. This is not the fragile MicroStrategy balance sheet of 2022. This capital structure was built for exactly this scenario.
And sentiment is washed. ETF outflows until very recently, algo selling below key MAs, sell-side publishing +-$40K BTC targets. That's the kind of positioning extreme you typically see at cycle lows, not cycle tops.
The signal
Time at Mode doesn't tell you what the catalyst will be. It tells you when the cycle structure is ripe for a momentum or for mean reversion. In January 2022, the signal said "this bear trend has a shelf life." By October 2022, the bottom in QQQ was in.
The October 2025 signal is saying the same thing. The bear phase is mature, the overshoot fits the pattern, and the probability of a significant mean reversion from this zone is high.
Not investment advice. But I've seen this chart before...
Best of luck,
Cheers!
Ivan Labrie.
$MSTR – Stopping Volume on Weekly → Strength Confirming AboveClear VSA signal developing on the weekly here.
We’ve seen Stopping Volume come in after a decline — high volume with price closing off the lows, suggesting absorption of selling.
Now getting a close back above that area → early confirmation that strength is present.
This is how accumulation typically starts:
- Selling pressure gets absorbed
- Supply dries up
- Price begins to lift
If this strength holds, I’ll be watching for:
- Higher lows
- Low volume pullbacks (No Supply)
- Continuation to the upside
Early stage, but structure is improving.
Watching closely.
MSTR - April 2026 - Correction complete?NASDAQ:MSTR has been in a nasty deep correction for the last couple of years, which has now made a low at the 85.4% retracement level.
Strong long-term support at $100 for the last 2 years.
Long-term target to take out the high of 2024.
Daily -
4 hr -
30 mins -
The Strat for StrategyMSTR is sitting at a key area here after what looks like a completed zigzag to the downside. Price has been respecting levels well, with a clean reaction off 118, and is now pushing into 151 which is a prior rejection zone.
This 151 area matters. It cuts off some of the alternate interpretations and becomes the decision point. If price can break and hold above 150 to 151, that opens the door for continuation higher. If we reject or just breach here, then a retrace or more sideways action is likely.
From a structure standpoint, the move up has been solid, but the diagonal stands out. It is larger than some of the internal moves, which raises a question on degree. But a completed pattern to offset the size of the diagonal should qual that issue. Especially if we get another motive wave printed here. A rejection would have me suspect the move from 118 is just a sub wave of a larger sideways move potentially.
The Elliott Wave on the bounce from 118 is not the cleanest, so this next reaction will help clarify things. If the diagonal is the main move, a push higher to at least a zigzag most likely target would help with clarity.
On the downside, if we reject 151, I could see a move down, followed by a retrace back into that level, setting up for continuation lower at some degree. There is still potential for this to develop into a flat or broader sideways structure.
Correlation wise, this is tied closely to the broader market. ES is at highs and Bitcoin is pushing. If Bitcoin continues higher without a meaningful retrace, MSTR likely follows. If Bitcoin stalls or pulls back, that weakness should show up here as well.
Overall, this is a reaction zone. Watching how price behaves at 150 to 151 will likely determine the next direction.
Trade safe.
Trade clarity.
Key Resistance & Targets: Mid-term and Long-term OutlookThis is a key zone for taking partial profits or closing positions entirely. On April 22nd, I published a BTC short based on my view that we are completing a Wave Y, with targets around the $50k region. Although Strategy doesn't track BTC 100%, I believe the correlation will hold for this move.
Possible Scenarios:
Price holds at $148 and continues the uptrend.
A move toward the $100 - $90 region (one of my primary targets).
Note: If neither of these levels holds, my main target lies between $64 and $56.
This is my outlook for the coming months. Please do not take this as financial advice or 100% certainty—always Do Your Own Research (DYOR).
Note: While the screenshot is in regular scale, the actual analysis is based on logarithmic scale for better accuracy.
MSTR is approaching trendline SupportMSTR has reached a trendline support which it is respecting consistently in the past. Made a trippled bottom near 101 recently and bounced towards 152. I would epect a rebound again from current zone 105-115 area. It will be safe as long as it stays above 102 (SL). Rebound will take it to 152 as first target. Crossing above 152 will lead to higher targets. Will evaluate along as it moves.
MSTR Holding Key Support, Bullish if BTC Pushes HigherStrategy NASDAQ:MSTR is testing a major support zone, making this a key area to watch. If BTC continues higher, MSTR could follow with strong upside momentum.
This setup supports a long spot idea while price holds above support, with clear upside targets and a defined risk level.
Trading Levels:
Entry: $115 - $120
TP1: $150 - $172
TP2: $190 - $220
Stop Loss: Below $115






















