Setup: The 4h chart shows a persistent downtrend from 3.60 in early March, with a brief recovery rally into the 2.85-2.90 zone that has now reversed sharply. The 1h chart shows price grinding up to 2.90+ over Apr 21-22, then failing hard this session — the Apr 23 07:00 bar opened at 2.811, pushed down to 2.778, and closed at 2.781 on the highest volume of the recent sample (15,172). That is a decisive breakdown candle reclaiming nothing, confirming the rejection of the 2.85-2.90 resistance shelf and breaking below the 2.80 pivot that had acted as support.
Flow: Natural gas is the session's standout bear at -2.83% on elevated volume, hitting all three bearish feeds. The broader tape is risk-off with commodities under pressure from a modest DXY bid. The immediate catalyst is Natural Gas Storage in ~39 minutes — a storage build above expectations would extend this leg sharply and aligns with the short thesis. Bearish momentum is being supplied, not faded.
Plan: Stop sits above the breakdown candle's open and the prior 2.80 support-turned-resistance zone — a reclaim there invalidates the breakdown thesis. Target is the Apr 13-14 congestion lows near 2.72, which also represents the floor of the prior multi-day base. The setup is disqualified if price reverses back through 2.815 before the storage print, or if the storage number comes in below expectations and triggers a sharp short-cover squeeze.
📍 Entry: 2.781
🛑 Stop: 2.815
🎯 Target: 2.72
⚖️ R:R: 1.79
Flow: Natural gas is the session's standout bear at -2.83% on elevated volume, hitting all three bearish feeds. The broader tape is risk-off with commodities under pressure from a modest DXY bid. The immediate catalyst is Natural Gas Storage in ~39 minutes — a storage build above expectations would extend this leg sharply and aligns with the short thesis. Bearish momentum is being supplied, not faded.
Plan: Stop sits above the breakdown candle's open and the prior 2.80 support-turned-resistance zone — a reclaim there invalidates the breakdown thesis. Target is the Apr 13-14 congestion lows near 2.72, which also represents the floor of the prior multi-day base. The setup is disqualified if price reverses back through 2.815 before the storage print, or if the storage number comes in below expectations and triggers a sharp short-cover squeeze.
📍 Entry: 2.781
🛑 Stop: 2.815
🎯 Target: 2.72
⚖️ R:R: 1.79
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monk.trade — Trade setups and market intelligence
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.